President's Barack Obama's approval rating in America is now down to 43% (Rasmussen).

Public approval for the U.S. Congress has never been lower and the history of mid term elections have always been difficult for the political party in power. 

The sluggish economy, huge national deficits and unpopular spending proposals which further increase the size of the federal government may be the perfect storm for electoral disaster for the Democratic Party in the November elections.

So, in a time of domestic distress from unpopular policies what is the politicians favorite game to play? First, change the subject of the conversation and focus on foreign policy. Next, follow the cynical words of Rahm Emmanuel and do not let any crisis go to waste. The possibility of a nuclear Iran would qualify as an international crisis for the West and the Middle East.

It should be understood that war with Iran to prevent nuclear weapons has overwhelming approval in America according to a Pew Research Center poll taken last October. In fact, over sixty percent of American's polled would favor taking military action if it's necessary to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. 

The sad fact is that the military option is all that now remains to prevent a nuclear Iran. China continues to block meaningful sanctions against Iran in the United Nations Security Council and time is running short to prevent Iran from obtaining full nuclear capability. 

In addition, American troops are scheduled to begin to withdraw from Iraq in August of this year. Iran will not be attacked unless the United States has its military in Iraq. So, from a military timing perspective, it is certainly a distinct possibility that an October surprise could be a war with Iran.

A conflict with Iran will not be an overnight air strike followed by hostile language, like the Israeli attack on the Syrian nuclear site in September 2007. Disrupting Iran's nuclear program will require a sustained campaign and the resulting conflict may last for several years.

A Middle East war will require that Israeli warplanes strike the Iranian nuclear facilities.  In response, Iran will launch attacks through its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas in Gaza and Lebanon against Israel. Syria will enter the war as an ally of Iran.  Terrorist attacks sponsored by Syria and Iran will increase in Iraq and Afghanistan and other Western targets.

Certainly, a war between the West and Iran has been discussed by the political pundits. The neo conservative National Review recently called on Obama to bomb Iran if he wants to save his presidency.

Conservative columnist Pat Buchanan had an article on the subject. Sarah Palin has also been saying, explicitly, that if Obama gets “tougher” against Iran and in the war on terror, the conservative opposition to his administration would largely subside.

Of course, a war with Iran in the fall would roil worldwide financial markets. The price of commodities like oil, gold and silver would soar and the world's equity markets could drop by as much as 30%. A double dip United States recession would become a more likely event in 2011.

Three rounds of United Nations sanctions have failed.  Barack Obama's foreign policy of outreach to Iran has been rejected and is in disarray.  The domestic economy has been slow to recover and American voters are getting increasingly restless with this Administration. Finally, the western world does not want to deal with the danger of a new and unstable nuclear power near the oil fields of the Middle East.

Add it all up and the result may be an October Surprise - A War With Iran. 

(In a world with the risk of rapid economic inflation and international military conflict, it is important to hedge a portfolio with positions in gold, oil and silver. Watch for an article next week in the World Of Investment Journal on commodities.)

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