A Cold War That Russia Can Win
Wednesday, February 4, 2009 at 07:22AM 
In the opening remarks at her confirmation hearing on Jan. 13, President, Barack Obama's Secretary of State designate Hillary Clinton told the Senate Foreign Relations committee she would use the office to shape foreign policy to fight global warming.
She lauded the Chairman [Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass.] for his understanding that global warming is an "unambiguous security threat". She said that "it could well incite new wars of an old kind over basic resources like food, water, and arable land.”
As Hillary Clinton was speaking about the future security danger of global warming in front of the Senate Foreign Relations committee, the Russian government was preparing to release a massive study which contained evidence of a different type of global climate change.
Certainly, the Russian government was not worried about global warming. In fact, it was much more concerned with the prospect of a global ice age in the years ahead. The Russian report measured core samples from Russia's Vostok Station in Antarctica. As a result, Russian scientists believe that their analysis gave them a real understanding of the earth's atmosphere and temperature over the last 420,000 years.
The Russian report summarized its findings as follows: "The evidence from core samples suggests that the 12,000 years of warmth we call the Holocene period is over. Apparently, we're headed into an ice age of about 100,000 years, give or take. As for CO2 levels, core samples show conclusively they follow the earth's temperature rise, not lead it.
As Mrs. Clinton spoke to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Vladamir Putin had already begun a new Russian cold war with Europe. However, this time it was with energy and the use of Russian gas.
The deadline expired on New Years Eve for Russia and Ukraine to agree on a new contract for 2009 gas supplies. Moscow had wanted to raise its prices and charge Kiev $250 per 1,000 cubic metres, up from $179.5 last year.
The Ukrainians thought that the new Russian price was excessive and refused to pay a cent more than $201. Russia promptly increased its price up to $450. Then, at 10am on New Year's Day, Russia's energy monopoly Gazprom halted supplies of all gas meant for domestic use in Ukraine.
Several weeks later, with Europe in an energy crisis, the dispute was settled with a ten year agreement and a huge price increase for Russia. Under the deal, Ukraine will pay $360 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas in 2009. Starting in 2010, both countries will switch to the full European market gas prices, and the Russian price will increase further.
The pipelines that cross Ukraine also carry gas to Europe. In fact, 20% of the European Union's gas is supplied by Russia through the pipelines in the Ukraine. So, its apparent that in the future, Russia now holds Europe hostage for gas supplies. Russia has just proven that if it controls the gas pipelines into Europe, it can control Europe through the use of its energy.
There is domestic and international security in global climate change. Politicians in America and Europe are prepared to spend billions to prevent global warming in the next century. However, as can be seen in the need for Russian gas in Europe through the Ukraine, the long term security risk is being on the wrong side of the global climate change debate.
So, as American and European politicians prepare to fight global warming, Russia is preparing for a different world that may have much colder times ahead. If global temperatures continue to cool, it will be a cold war that Russia can win without ever firing a shot.
Reader Comments (2)
I think it is time to think of getting rid of the gas furnace and installing a coal stove.
We've met the enemy and it is us or more precisely our current so called leaders.