Taking The Temperature Of Global Climate Change
Tuesday, April 29, 2008 at 07:23PM 
The daily observation from the Solar & Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) clearly highlights a potential global problem. In 2008, nearly every day of each of the first four months of the year has recorded an observation of sunspot activity that is equal to zero. In fact, there have been only a few days in the last four months when there has been any sunspot activity at all and each small event disappeared very quickly.
The importance of sunspot inactivity is the continued confirmation that Sunspot Cycle 24 will be very weak or even delayed. The most recent solar minimum was in March of last year. The new cycle, No.24, was supposed to start soon after that, with a predicted gradual build-up in sunspot numbers. It has not yet happened. History would suggest that the longer the delay in cycle activity, the weaker this sunspot cycle will be.
Consider that the future implications of this lack of sunspot activity may be enormous. Sunspots can be historically correlated with temperature change on Earth. Weak sunspot activity correlates to colder temperatures on earth. In fact, low sunspot activity in the past has led to decades of extremely cold worldwide temperatures. Indeed, a lack of sunspot activity may already correlate to the global cooling of the planet seen in the last twelve months. Therefore, current sunspot inactivity may predict even more cooling of the Earth’s climate in the years to come.
Last year, a dramatic cooling of the planet was measured by all four agencies that track Earth's temperature (the Hadley Climate Research Unit in Britain, the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, the Christy group at the University of Alabama, and Remote Sensing Systems Inc in California). It is now estimated that the Earth cooled by about 0.7C in 2007 which is the fastest temperature change on record. However, even as the planet was experiencing a dramatic decrease in temperature, the dubious ramifications of the misguided policies of the proponents of global warming could already be seen.
According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the world's poorest countries can expect the cost of imported food to rise by over fifty percent this year. The World Bank estimates that food prices have already risen by 83 percent in the last three years. Already, thirty seven countries face food crises and consequences like malnourishment, starvation, and civil unrest. Riots over the high price of food have recently broken out in Haiti, Egypt, Senegal and more than twenty other countries worldwide.
Biofuels are a major reason that the price of food continues to escalate throughout the world according to conclusions from several reports on the current global food crisis. "Globalization, climate change, and the mass production of biofuels are pushing up food prices worldwide, which could jeopardize the livelihoods of the world's poorest", according to a report by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
Similar findings have also been reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. In addition, these reports estimate that a global temperature increase of more than three degrees Celsius due to global warming could lift food prices by an additional 40 percent.
As can be seen in the reports, all the current planning is based solely on a future assumption of global warming. These reports continue to ignore the current low sunspot activity of Solar Cycle 24 and its potential correlation to an immediate future of cooling temperatures on the climate of the Earth.
The unfortunate truth is that if the planet continues to cool in the years ahead there will be less total global agriculture and much higher food prices than in these forecasts. A lack of proper planning for global cooling will result in millions of people starving due to a lack of food or from cold-related diseases because the world will not be prepared for the colder climate solution.
Consider that the daily report of sunspot activity may well be a signal of a future climate that is much colder than the world currently anticipates. In fact, in the years ahead, the world may even experience the extreme global effect of a mini ice age. Then, the misguided conversion of crops to fuel to save the planet from global warming would truly be catastrophic.
Therefore, agricultural and climate planning should include all possible future climate scenarios, both warm and cold. Like treating a sick patient, proper diagnosis of a problem is the first action in facilitating a cure. Science involves experimentation, observation, and hypothesis. It should not be a dogmatic crusade that is closed to debate.
Today, it makes little sense to starve the planet in a attempt to save it in the future through the use of biofuels. Tomorrow, it makes even less sense to plan and prepare for global warming if our future reality may require an increased use of fur coats as protection from the increased cold. That is why accurately taking the temperature of global climate change is crucial to the lives of millions of people in the years and decades ahead.
Jim Smith
There is still no sunspot activity in cycle 24. Global Scientists are becoming increasingly concerned. Read the following from the International Solar Conference.
Science Daily reports on an international solar conference where topic number one was the lack of sunspot activity:
"The scientists said periods of inactivity are normal for the sun, but this period has gone on longer than usual. Today's sun is as inactive as it was two years ago, and scientists aren't sure why…'It continues to be dead,' said Saku Tsuneta with the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan..."
Some believe the lack of sunspots could usher in a much colder period for the earth.
Jim Smith
Article from DailyTech.com about the the first month (August 2008) without a sunspot in the last 100 years.
Sun Makes History: First Spotless Month In A Century
The sun has reached a milestone not seen for nearly 100 years: an entire month has passed without a single visible sunspot being noted.
The event is significant as many climatologists now believe solar magnetic activity – which determines the number of sunspots -- is an influencing factor for climate on earth.
According to data from Mount Wilson Observatory, UCLA, more than an entire month has passed without a spot. The last time such an event occurred was June of 1913. Sunspot data has been collected since 1749.
When the sun is active, it's not uncommon to see sunspot numbers of 100 or more in a single month. Every 11 years, activity slows, and numbers briefly drop to near-zero. Normally sunspots return very quickly, as a new cycle begins.
But this year -- which corresponds to the start of Solar Cycle 24 -- has been extraordinarily long and quiet, with the first seven months averaging a sunspot number of only 3. August followed with none at all. The astonishing rapid drop of the past year has defied predictions, and caught nearly all astronomers by surprise.
In 2005, a pair of astronomers from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson attempted to publish a paper in the journal Science. The pair looked at minute spectroscopic and magnetic changes in the sun. By extrapolating forward, they reached the startling result that, within 10 years, sunspots would vanish entirely. At the time, the sun was very active. Most of their peers laughed at what they considered an unsubstantiated conclusion.
The journal ultimately rejected the paper as being too controversial.
The paper's lead author, William Livingston, tells DailyTech that, while the refusal may have been justified at the time, recent data fits his theory well. He says he will be "secretly pleased" if his predictions come to pass.
But will the rest of us? In the past 1000 years, three previous such events -- the Dalton, Maunder, and Spörer Minimums, have all led to rapid cooling. One was large enough to be called a "mini ice age". For a society dependent on agriculture, cold is more damaging than heat. The growing season shortens, yields drop, and the occurrence of crop-destroying frosts increases.
Meteorologist Anthony Watts, who runs a climate data auditing site, tells DailyTech the sunspot numbers are another indication the "sun's dynamo" is idling. According to Watts, the effect of sunspots on TSI (total solar irradiance) is negligible, but the reduction in the solar magnetosphere affects cloud formation here on Earth, which in turn modulates climate.
This theory was originally proposed by physicist Henrik Svensmark, who has published a number of scientific papers on the subject. Last year Svensmark's "SKY" experiment claimed to have proven that galactic cosmic rays -- which the sun's magnetic field partially shields the Earth from -- increase the formation of molecular clusters that promote cloud growth. Svensmark, who recently published a book on the theory, says the relationship is a larger factor in climate change than greenhouse gases.
Solar physicist Ilya Usoskin of the University of Oulu, Finland, tells DailyTech the correlation between cosmic rays and terrestrial cloud cover is more complex than "more rays equals more clouds". Usoskin, who notes the sun has been more active since 1940 than at any point in the past 11 centuries, says the effects are most important at certain latitudes and altitudes which control climate. He says the relationship needs more study before we can understand it fully.
Other researchers have proposed solar effects on other terrestrial processes besides cloud formation. The sunspot cycle has strong effects on irradiance in certain wavelengths such as the far ultraviolet, which affects ozone production. Natural production of isotopes such as C-14 is also tied to solar activity. The overall effects on climate are still poorly understood.
What is incontrovertible, though, is that ice ages have occurred before. And no scientist, even the most skeptical, is prepared to say it won't happen again.
Article Update, Sep 1 2008. After this story was published, the NOAA reversed their previous decision on a tiny speck seen Aug 21, which gives their version of the August data a half-point. Other observation centers such as Mount Wilson Observatory are still reporting a spotless month. So depending on which center you believe, August was a record for either a full century, or only 50 years.
Reader Comments (1)
For me going outside in the sun is scary because I already have had skin cancer. My doctor prescribed me Heliocare sun care and I must say I am feeling great and energized! I read up on it at "kiwi drug" and just for everyone to know I am back outside enjoying the sun ( thought I'd never say that again) not having to worry about being protected form the suns rays.