An Escalating Crisis Between Iran and the West

The price of oil has reached more than ninety dollars a barrel for the first time during the last month. There is a buildup of British and American forces near the Iranian border. The Pentagon has announced the building of a US base in Iraq near the border with Iran. The navel buildup near Iran continues. The French Government has escalated its public rhetoric about a war with Iran. All signs continue to point to an escalating world crisis between the West and Iran.

Iranian activity concerning Iraq was strongly condemned by General Petraeus and Ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, in front of Congress. General Petraeus spoke of a "proxy war" that Iran was fighting in Iraq, while Ambassador Crocker accused the Iranian government of "providing lethal capabilities to the enemies of the Iraqi state"."It is increasingly apparent," said Petraeus, "that Iran, through the use of the Quds Force, seeks to turn the Iraqi Special Groups into a Hezbollah-like force to serve its interests and fight a proxy war against the Iraqi state and coalition forces in Iraq." In an interview after his appearance before a congressional panel, General Petraeus strongly implied that it would soon be necessary to obtain authorization to take action against Iran within its own borders, rather than just inside Iraq. "There is a pretty hard look ongoing at that particular situation.", he said.

The only hope to avoid war between Iran and the West over Iran’s ongoing nuclear development program appears to be the United Nations. The Iranian crisis is on the United Nations agenda and possible new sanctions against Iran are being discussed.

However, the option of new sanctions against Iran appears to be diminishing when one considers this recent report from Fox news : “Germany — a pivotal player among three European nations to rein in Iran's nuclear program over the last two-and-a-half years through a mixture of diplomacy and sanctions supported by the United States — notified its allies last week that the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel refuses to support the imposition of any further sanctions against Iran that could be imposed by the U.N. Security Council. The announcement was made at a meeting in Berlin that brought German officials together with Iran desk officers from the five member states of the Security Council. It stunned the room and left most Bush administration principals concluding that sanctions are dead.” China and Russia are already opposed to any meaningful sanctions concerning Iraq.

The British newspaper, The Telegraph, citing intelligence sources, reported that the Administration has concluded that sanctions against Iran in the United Nations are dead. It states that the Bush Administration plans to prepare America for war with Iran over the next several months. The Telegraph reports : “ In a chilling scenario of how war might come, a senior intelligence officer warned that public denunciation of Iranian meddling in Iraq - arming and training militants - would lead to cross border raids on Iranian training camps and bomb factories. A prime target would be the Fajr base run by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Quds Force in southern Iran, where Western intelligence agencies say Armour-piercing projectiles used against British and US troops are manufactured. Under the theory - which is gaining credence in Washington security circles - US action would provoke a major Iranian response, perhaps in the form of moves to cut off Gulf oil supplies, providing a trigger for air strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities and even its armed forces.”

Over the last several months, public pressure is growing in the United States for meaningful troop withdrawals from Iraq. The American public is also growing increasingly restless about the lack of progress by the government of Nouri al- Maliki. In a September, 2007 Gallup public opinion poll, a record 60% say the United States should set a timetable to withdraw forces and stick to that timetable regardless of what is going on in the country.

The remaining time for this Administration to govern is beginning to grow short. The start of the 2008 Presidential elections herald the conclusion of George Bush’s term in office. The prospect of a historic strategic military mistake by invading Iraq. A humanitarian crisis in the country when our troops withdraw. A Middle East dominated by an Iran with nuclear weapons. The price of a barrel of oil throughout the world being held hostage by a radical regime in Tehran. These outcomes are not what George Bush had in mind for the legacy of his Presidency. He is going to have to take military action against Iran before he leaves office. It looks like the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities may be only several months away. This could become a very important world event in early 2008.

During the next several months, the Bush Administration will likely change the conversation in America from the inept Iraqi government of Nouri al- Maliki to the dangers posed to Iraq and America by the government of Iran. An escalating crisis between Iran and the West will likely make this winter a long season of conflict.

http://www.eworldvu.com