The Cost Of Obamacare Is Political Pain

During the worst fiscal crisis America has experienced in nearly a century, Congressional Democrats and the President have spent most of the last year advancing a government takeover of the health care industry. 

Unfortunately for the Democrats and the President, public opinion polls consistently show that the economy and not health care continues to be the biggest concern for the voter.  Since the real unemployment rate is around 17% and set to move even higher, voter opinion is not about to change anytime soon. 

In fact, nearly 50% of the public like the current health care system and 53% oppose the current health care legislation. Only 41% support the legislation currently in Congress.  Distrust of Obamacare runs deep, with more than half of the country expecting current legislation to hurt the quality of care while increasing its cost.

The Senate will probably pass their version of the health care bill by the end of the year.  So, it is in the New Year that the political fun will really begin.   The truth is that the Senate does not have the votes to pass the bill that has already passed in the House.  Meanwhile the House does not have the votes to pass the eventual Senate health care version.

The philisophical differences on health care between liberal and moderate Democrats run deep.  Abortion funding, the public option with a government run care alternative and the real cost of the actual legislation will lead to a prolonged reconcilation process before a final bill is brought to the floor in both the House and Senate next year.

Meanwhile, in November 2010, mid term Congressional elections will be held with Republicans already hold a generic seven point advantage if that election were held today.   If unemployment remains high and the economy is slow to improve in 2010, the Democrats could be facing a political debacle with the voters in November 2010 at the polls.  

However, Democrats cannot walk away from health care legislation since to do nothing would be as bad as passing something somewhat unpopular. So, the political bribery and back room deals concerning Obamacare are sure to run rampant early in the New Year.   The result will probably be a watered down version of the current Obamacare legislation without a vibrant public option followed by a Democratic promotion of their health care victory. 

But the problem for Democrats next year can be found in the words of Bill Clinton during his 1992 Presidential campaign. The Clinton phrase, " Its the economy stupid" will surely be the Republicans 2010 campaign refrain.

The political cost of Obamacare is already high with the Presidents approval rating now falling under 50% and the recent Democratic defeats in races for Governor in Virginia and New Jersey.  Extending the current health care debate into a mid term election year is destined to add to their political pain.

(Note: Our health care investment selection for the Retirement model portfolio will be available later today.) See : Abbott Labs For Healthy Portfolio Gains

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