An Electoral College Tie Means A Constitutional Crisis

Each day, for the last several months, just about every national public opinion poll has told the same story. John McCain and Barack Obama are in a statistical tie. A look at the electoral college map also shows a very close result. The truth is that it certainly appears that the 2008 Presidential election will be decided by a handful of votes in just a few battleground states. (See:The Twelve States That Will Decide Election 2008 on eWorldvu.com).

However, what if the voting result in these battleground states doesn't decide the 2008 Presidential election? What would happen if the electoral vote count ends in a tie with each Presidential candidate one electoral vote short of the 270 needed for victory? It is certainly a possibility and it could happen this year in a variety of different ways.

Let's assume that the voters' preference for President in election 2008 remains evenly divided between now and Election Day. Let's also assume that after all of the votes have been cast on November 4, 2008, Republican candidate John McCain wins the battleground states of Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, New Hampshire, Indiana, and New Mexico.

Meanwhile, Democrat Barack Obama is victorious in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, Nevada, and Wisconsin. One final assumption is that every other state votes for the candidate who it currently favors in most of the public opinion polls.

The result of this hypothetical 2008 election is a 269 to 269 Electoral College tie and a Constitutional crisis that would certainly end up in the United States Supreme Court. In fact, there are several other combinations of states that would also result in an electoral tie. So, the prospect of an electoral tie in this Presidential election is not as far fetched as it may seem.

If the 2008 Presidential election does end in an Electoral College tie, the President is selected by a vote in the House Of Representatives and the Senate would choose the Vice President. However, there is not complete agreement among constitutional experts on whether next years newly elected Congress or the current House and Senate would make that decision.

So, an electoral tie in the 2008 Presidential Election would result in a Constitutional crisis. It would also lead to government chaos and uncertainty depending on how the Supreme Court interprets the Constitution. In addition, there are many historic events that could result from an electoral tie and Constitutional Crisis

The fact is that it may take many months for the next elected President to be chosen and take the oath of office. In the meantime, the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, would become the first woman President on Inauguration Day on January 20, 2009. She would act as interim President until the electoral tie was resolved and the next President is chosen by the House of Representatives.

A different Electoral College tie scenario could result if the Supreme Court rules that the newly elected Congress seated in January 2009 makes the selection of the next President and Vice President of the United States.

In fact, if the makeup of next year's House of Representatives is politically split and unable to obtain a majority to choose a new President by Inauguration Day and the Senate is controlled by the Republican Party, Sarah Palin would become the Vice President-elect and then become the first woman President of the United States, until the President is eventually chosen by the House Of Representatives.

In another possibility, if the Supreme Court rules that the current Congress is empowered to select the next President and Vice President, the House would elect Barack Obama while the Senate could result in a tie with the deciding vote cast by Dick Cheney to elect Sarah Palin as Vice President.

There are other strange political combinations that could result from an Electoral College tie, but these scenarios alone outline the potential political chaos that could result. In addition, due to the close results of the election, many battle ground states would be in a vote certification recount and any Constitutional crisis could well become more complex and escalate.

After the recent sub-prime mortgage meltdown on Wall Street, a tie in this Presidential election is the last thing America needs. However, it is a potential outcome that is entirely possible. The truth is that a tied 2008 Presidential election would lead to a Constitutional crisis so large in scope, that it will surely make everyone forget the days of the “hanging chad”.

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