No Brokered Convention For The 2008 Presidential Election
Friday, February 1, 2008 at 05:52PM 
The country is intrigued by the possibility of a brokered convention. Pundits and observers of the 2008 election have speculated that the nominee for either the Democratic or Republican Party may not be resolved until the convention in the late summer.
The television and media moguls would love to see such an event. It would be political reality television which would take everyone's mind from the current absence of original programming due to the writers' strike. A brokered political convention would be riveting world news and a windfall for political journalists as well.
America does have a long history of brokered political conventions. There were brokered political conventions in 1860 and 1924. The Democratic convention in 1952, which eventually nominated Adlai Stevenson was a brokered convention with multiple ballots. The last Republican convention that went beyond a single ballot was the Republican convention in 1948, which eventually nominated Thomas E. Dewey. In recent history, the last political convention that was somewhat in doubt was the Republican convention in 1976 with Ronald Reagan.
In recent times, television has played a major role in the elimination of the brokered convention. The spectacle of controversy, and division within a party in front of a world wide television audience, has no appeal to either political party. In addition, history tells us that brokered conventions lead to a loss at the polls for the chosen candidate in the general election in November.
The 2008 Presidential primary election for the Democratic party is so close that it will certainly continue after Super Tuesday on February, 5, 2008. In fact the campaigns of both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama may continue well into the month of March. If the current public opinion polls are correct, Hillary Clinton should lead Barrack Obama in delegates after the primaries on February 5, 2008.
Hillary Clinton currently leads Barrack Obama (Rasmussen poll) in nearly every primary state on Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008. Victories in nearly every primary state on Super Tuesday will mean that Clinton should have over half the delegates needed to win the nomination on the following morning of February 6. Barrack Obama is likely to be trailing behind her after Super Tuesday.
However, Barack Obama should still be competitive in the campaign because most of the remaining state Democratic primaries award their delegates on a percentage of the vote basis. Also Obama has an advantage in that there are still several hundred uncommitted super delegates who still could endorse him.
The bad news for Barack Obama is that (assuming the current public opinion polls result in Hillary Clinton primary victories) by late March it will be obvious that the only way he could possibly win the necessary delegates for the Democratic nomination is through a bitter and brokered convention in August. Indeed, Barack Obama will be under heavy pressure within the party in March to avoid that divisive result.
Unlike the Democratic state primaries, the Republicans award convention delegates in a winner-take-all fashion. Mitt Romney needs enthusiastic support from the party's conservative base to win enough delegates to be the Republican nominee. Even though he currently leads John McCain by 15 % nationally (Rasmussen) among conservatives, it has not been enough to overcome McCain's strength among Republican moderates and Independent voters.
Romney is viewed with skepticism by some conservative voters and his Mormon religion continues to be a problem for Evangelical Christian conservatives. After his recent Florida primary election victory, John McCain has political momentum and should win across the board on Super Tuesday February 5, 2008. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee may then drop out of the race after the Super Tuesday primaries.
Therefore, it appears that, in March, there could still be a competitive Democratic contest between Hillary Clinton and Barrack Obama. However, with John McCain busy uniting the Republican party and raising money for the general election campaign in the fall, Democratic party insiders will be anxious to do the same. There will be no interest within the Democratic Party for a protracted fight ending in a divisive and brokered convention in the summer. The clear frontrunner entering March in delegates will be the nominee of the party. That frontrunner based on current public opinion polls should be Hillary Clinton.
Therefore, before the end of the month of March, the 2008 Presidential election will have the two candidates for the general election in the fall. The nominees in each party in this interesting political election season will have been chosen. There will not be a brokered convention in either party. There will be a general Presidential election campaign between likely Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican candidate John McCain.
James Smith
Article from AFP - Briebart this morning
Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean on Wednesday voiced concern over the prospect of a brokered convention at the end of the party's White House nominating contests."The idea that we can afford to have a big fight at the convention and then win the race in the next eight weeks, I think, is not a good scenario," Dean said according to excerpts of an interview with NY1 television.
In state nominating contests so far, no clear winner has emerged among Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the party's nomination ahead of November's presidential vote to replace George W.Bush in the White House.
"I think we will have a nominee sometime in the middle of March or April. But if we don't, then we're going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of an arrangement," said Dean, who failed in his bid for the party's nomination in 2004.
"Because I don't think we can afford to have a brokered convention -- that would not be good news for either party."
A brokered convention has not been seen in decades, and harkens back to an era of shady political deal-making when powerbrokers and cash kings -- instead of regular voters -- chose one candidate over another at a raucous, smoke-filled convention hall.
For more than 50 years, each party has selected delegates who favor one nominee over another by a significant margin well ahead of the convention, which exists mainly for ceremonial and celebratory purposes
Reader Comments (4)
You are 100% wrong. Obama is making huge gains in his run up to Super Tuesday. America is waking up and joining the Obama movement more and more each day. If Barack doesn't win the majority on Tuesday, he will at least half down the middle with Clinton. Time is on Obama's side. The longer the race, the more people jump into his camp.
Also, as strongly as Obama feels about this country, he's not just going to "give up" in March. He's a true leader that won't settle for anything less than what this country deserves - Barack Obama as President of the United States!
In recent history, the last political convention that was somewhat in doubt was the Republican convention in 1978 with Ronald Reagan.
Umm. NOT. There was no Rebublican National Convention in 1978. Do you mean the RNC of 1980?
Josh H. Thanks for pointing out my error. The year of the Reagan convention was 1976 not 1978. I have made the correction in the text.
jkhutz
We will see who is correct in March or April. If its a choice between a brokered democratic convention and a Hillary Clinton nomination, the party superdelegates are insiders of the Party and will move to clinton. Also the Obama money from democratic donors will suddenly dry up. He will not be able to continue his campaign. The rules of the party have from the beginning have been set up to favor clinton. Its not that he will give up - he will have no choice. There will not be a brokered convention - party insiders will see to it. I think the same would thing would happen to Clinton if Obama were ahead by a couple of hundred delegates in late March or late April. Thanks for the comments.