Election 2008: It Looks Like Clinton and Giuliani

In late October 2007, all the polls show that the race for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination is over and the choice is Hillary Clinton. Mrs. Clinton has been increasing her lead all year and now has an overwhelming lead in all of the polls. (see "Four Months To Go And Hillary Clinton is the Show", on eWorldvu.com) On the other side of the Presidential nomination ledger, Rudy Giuliani looks increasingly likely to be the Republican standard- bearer despite continued hesitation from conservative Republican voters. (see "Republicans Wary Of America's Mayor" on eWorldvu.com). The prospects for the remaining candidates of both parties to win their respective party's nomination have become remote. Indeed, the current dynamics of the campaign would have to dramatically change to alter a 2008 match up between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani.

To review the current state of the major candidates campaigns, let’s look first at the Democratic primary race. Barack Obama has staked his entire campaign on an early victory in the Iowa Caucus. ( For more on the Obama campaign, see "The Barack OBama Campaign of Hope" on eWorldvu.com). The Obama campaign strategy assumed that a victory in Iowa would propel Obama to an early win in South Carolina and a good showing in New Hampshire. Obama would then use his huge election war chest to promote his early victories in other primary states and the momentum would propel him to be the nominee of the Democratic primary.

Currently, Barrack Obama is about twenty percentage points behind Hillary Clinton in the latest Rasmussen nationwide poll. Hillary Clinton leads Obama by 30% in the CNN/Opinion Research poll. She leads Obama by 29% in the USA Today poll and by 21% in Reuters/Zogby poll. The latest polling data out of the Iowa caucuses looks dismal for Obama as well. He trails Clinton by about ten points, which is probably the reason he can be seen in Iowa campaigning door to door. However, let’s assume that Obama erases the deficit and wins the Iowa Caucus. At this point it is unlikely that even an early victory in the Iowa caucus could erase the huge Clinton lead nationwide. It is also unlikely that it would change the outcome in the early primary states of South Carolina and New Hampshire where Obama currently trails Mrs. Clinton badly.

John Edwards is running a campaign similar to Obama's with the same strategy of an early primary or Iowa caucus victory. ( For more on the Edwards campaign, see "John Edwards’ Campaign Of Contradictions" on eWorldvu.com) The difference in the Edwards’ campaign is that he has far less money than Clinton or Obama. He trails Hillary Clinton by even a greater margin nationwide than Obama and has close to the same margin of deficit in Iowa as Obama has to Clinton. At this point, both the Barrack Obama and John Edwards campaigns should be writing their candidates concession speeches for early 2008.

In the Republican primary for the 2008 Presidential election, there are the campaigns of Mitt Romney, John McCain, and Fred Thompson. Romney's campaign strategy is very similar to that of John Edwards and Barrack Obama. Romney trails Giuliani by a huge margin nationally. The Romney campaign is slightly ahead in the early Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary and is competitive in Michigan. The Romney campaign does have the money to capitalize on early primary victories and he may be the candidate best positioned to pull off a republican election upset.  However, Romney currently trails Giuliani by more than seventeen  percentage points in the huge delegate states of California, New York, and New Jersey. It is difficult to envision a scenario which would prevent Giuliani from winning these delegate rich states even if Romney wins in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Further, Romney's Mormon religion is an obstacle in securing the republican evangelical voters.

John McCain has managed to keep his campaign alive since the disaster of last summer (For more on the McCain campaign, see "The Straight Talk Express Will Not Reach Its Final Destination" on eWorldvu.com). However, he is in third or fourth place depending on the various nationwide polls. The Zogby poll has him attaining only 8% of the Republican vote. McCain needs a win in the New Hampshire primary to remain viable. However, with Rudy Giuliani in the race and without any base of conservative Republican voter support, it’s very difficult to see where his primary election votes come from after New Hampshire.

Fred Thompson entered the race late and has little money. His campaign has not caught fire. Thompson has been missing from the campaign trail for several days each week. He has a dubious history of being a lazy campaigner. He is trailing Giuliani by about ten percentage points nationally and is the Giuliani campaign’s closest competition. For Republicans considering Thompson that want to win a general election, the news is not good. Thompson trails Hillary Clinton by about 15% nationally. He is not a strong debater and lacks fire on the campaign trail. It’s hard to see Thompson being nominated if the Republicans want to be competitive in the Presidential election in 2008.

The primary election calendar has been moved up this year. State primaries will choose over 50% of each party's convention delegates between January 1, 2008 and Tuesday February 5th, 2008. The primary election campaign for each party should be essentially over by February 5, 2008. The polls throughout 2007 have consistently endorsed a 2008 Presidential election contest between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. It would take a dramatic event in the next couple of months in the campaigns of either of those two candidates to change public opinion enough to alter that result. In the 2008 Presidential election it looks like Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani are the Democratic and Republican Party nominees.

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