A Threat Of Chaos South of The Border

Mexico is counting on its weakened currency against the dollar and its proximity to the U.S. to attract recession-shocked Americans to fuel its growing tourism industry this year.

In fact, Mexico had a 3 percent increase in tourism in 2008, with vacationers flocking to its sunny, tranquil white, sandy beaches and cobble-stoned streets. The tourist came even during the global economic crisis.

However, before Americans check the exchange rate of the Peso with the U.S. dollar and decide to book a vacation with our neighbor, south of the border, there are some other things to consider.  

According to reports and analysis released in the last several weeks by several U.S. government sources, Mexico has about as much stability as the country of Pakistan at the moment.

Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a recent report released by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.

The command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" analysis contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. The report includes the following assessment of the political situation in the country:

"In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse. The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels."

The report continues: "How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone."

The analysis from the Joint Force is one in a series focusing on Mexico's internal security problems, mostly stemming from drug violence and drug corruption. In recent weeks, the Department of Homeland Security and former U.S. drug czar Barry McCaffrey have issued similar alerts about Mexico.

In the last year, more than 5,000 people have been killed in Mexico and police and military officials have become common targets for violent drug cartels who are fighting with each other and the government for control of lucrative drug and human smuggling routes across the country.

Last week, President Felipe Calderon's war on drug trafficking led to the highest levels of the Mexican government, with the arrest of a dozen officials with alleged ties to Mexico's most powerful drug gang.

The truth is that if a vacation in Pakistan was out of the question due to political instability and a possible government collapse, Americans should also realize that the same risk applies to a vacation in sunny Mexico as well.

http://www.eworldvu.com